Textul de mai jos a apărut în volumul „Ars Analytica” în 2013 (link editură). Poate fi descărcat în format PDF aici.

 

 

 

GEOINT Analysis

The decisional support that can make a difference

 Marcel Foca and Aurel-Mihai Băloi

 

”Politics is the daughter of history, and history is the daughter of geography”

Confucius

 

Context

     In a world of globalization, in the informational era and a knowledge society, the Romanian literature regarding analyses based on technical sources (SIGINT^[1], IMINT^[2], GEOINT^[3] etc.) doesn’t seem to be so broad. There are numerous studies on open source analysis (OSINT^[4]), partially from secret human sources (HUMINT^[5]) and even on multi source analysis, but there are too little studies on technical source analysis, especially from our interest’s perspective, the GEOINT analysis.

Even though, Romania provided GEOINT data during the Iraqi Freedom^[6] and at least the military intelligence structures approached the GEOINT domain in several studies, which shows their interest in this category of intelligence.

Furthermore, this domain brought interest from research’s perspective, and there is public data on these projects. We view as a salute the project that underwent from 2006 to 2009 by the Romanian Space Agency along with various structures from MApN^[7] and SRI^[8], that was developed with the purpose to establish a Geospatial Intelligence Center and to form new analysts, that can be used by the national intelligence structures in the operating theatres where Romania is involved.^[9]

Given that most of the intelligence services (national or departmental, internal or external, military or civil) have structures (larger or smaller) specialized in collecting, processing and analyzing technical intelligence (SIGINT, IMINT, GEOINT), or other similar sources (RADINT¹⁰, MASINT^[10] etc.), we consider that developing studies on georesource analysis is more than necessary. It is the same goal that this work is supporting, given that some of the

 

intelligence services already have very developed SIGINT/GEOINT structures, if we are only talking about NSA^[11] and NGA^[12] (USA), GCHQ^[13] and DGC^[14] (Great Britain), CFJIC^[15] (Canada), and other countries (Russia, China, India), and even organizations (NATO and EU^[16]) have expensive and sophisticated undergoing projects in this domain.

According to NGA, GEOINT consists in analyzing and operating imagery intelligence and geospatial intelligence in order to describe, evaluate and visualize the description of physical details and  geographic referencing of the activities on and around Earth^[17].

The precursor of GEOINT is considered to be IMINT, most advanced systems of GEOINT collection are satellites, drones and UAVs¹⁹, that became very important in the era of communication globalization.

 

GEOINT can make the difference

From this perspective, we consider that the interest of developing GEOINT must be correlated with two other fundamental interests: the national/departmental interest for security and the ambitions/capabilities of the intelligence structure that is legally responsible with the geospatial domain.

In the following we planned to address the way that today’s complex missions can determine the improvement of intelligence collection and dissemination capabilities. The ability to operate multi-INT’s, human and open sources, geospatial and technical (in a word, “signals”: SIGINT, including the latest: video-signals) determine a change from the classic paradigm of compartmentalization of the intelligence source analysis to a new, much stronger, paradigm of INT fusion (multi-INT). This fusion generates much stronger instruments for collecting intelligence, based on which people can take action in the field and analyze and decide (by the dispatched personnel, or by the tactic and strategy decision makers).

The ability to integrate the classic HUMINT and the modern OSINT in collection and process systems of SIGINT and GEOINT could prove to be vital nowadays.

Why? Because we are talking about “geo-decision”. We must conceptualize the geo-decision and the geointelligence and to operate them the same way we did with geo-politics. We must talk about these concepts every time we talk about strategy, and every time we talk about long term horizons.

Why would you believe us?

Let’s make a little experiment: What do the following have in common?

• The Tel Aviv flight is delayed with 30 minutes (today, Friday),
• One of the flight passengers that was about to get in the plane at the Otopeni Airport was retained (yesterday) after a gun was found on himself,
• The yellow code will start on Sunday, at 8:00 AM until 8:00 PM. The National Meteorology Administration reported rainfalls in all regions, in the form of snow in Dobrogea, south of Oltenia and Muntenia, including Bucharest, ✓ There are delays (today) at the takeoff of some flights at the Otopeni International Airport.

 

• Due to citizens’ requests regarding the extension of the public transport offer, starting by Tuesday , the 783 express line will be running on daytime and also during night time.

 

So, what do all these have in common? They are all reporting to the same area/territory.

If they are all reported to the same area (here: Otopeni International Airport), then can the intelligence be updated in a unitary way? The answer is yes, but only if we manage them with geospatial²⁰ solutions.

We tend to believe that the geographic intelligence must be operated with GIS software in a specialized department. This opinion led to organizational customs that separated the geographic information from the classic type of information managed by IT solutions, namely alpha-numerical and structured databases. By doing this, the true potential of geographical intelligence is lost. Reality shows us that geographical intelligence is found in every IT subsystem from any institution that works with data and information, only that these are not known, acknowledged nor capitalized as a unitary whole. By integrating both kinds of data/information – alpha-numerical and geographic – in a unitary system implemented in the entire organization, the GEOINT potential given by the geospatial solutions can be capitalized.

GEOINT’s part in the era of asymmetrical threats

     If we can say about HUMINT that it exists only when intelligence also exists, and that all the other types of INT developed successively, GEOINT is a resource specific to the 21^th century^[18]. It is the last, or among the latest sources of information developed in the intelligence field. It’s appearance in the INTs’ panoply is on one side strongly related and conditioned by the technology development, and on the other side, by the appearance of the non-traditional and asymmetrical risks. It is considered to be a very sophisticated resource – and also an expensive one, yet besides that it diminishes the risks of losing human lives or the risk of blowing the cover of delicate operations – that only the intelligence states/structures with certain geostrategic interests/goals or that have vital interests to protect can afford.

It becomes a more and more important resource for intelligence, because it grants access to the most hermetically closed areas/environments.

In the situations where open sources don’t exist, HUMINT cannot breach in and SIGINT is irrelevant, GEOINT can make the difference. As an example, in Afghanistan, in the FATA region (near the Pakistani frontier), some regions were monitored and gave vital input in the fight against terrorism exclusively based on the data provided by satellites or UAV’s.

How can the intelligence agencies infiltrate in such terrorist organizations or extremist movements? How can they foresee the intentions related to assaults or to military attacks?

In these situations where human resources cannot be infiltrated (so we can’t receive HUMINT information), many of the people/structures involved in terrorist activities don’t use classic communication systems (which makes almost useless most of the SIGINT capabilities), and OSINT is as good as inexistent (because once in a while it provides some communication environments, like Al Jazeera, but they only provide the pieces of information that only they want to make public), the intelligence gathered through GEOINT capabilities can prove to be essential in real time decision making. Moreover, GEOINT intelligence is extremely accurate, and represent itself a solution to cover the specific gaps in an intelligence gathering plan.

The difference that GEOINTELLIGENCE makes is that it provides the possibility of gathering information anytime and anywhere, providing vital decision-making support for either civil intelligence or military intelligence.

 

GEOINT as an integrating platform for the other INT’s

     In the classical intelligence paradigm, GEOINT is included in the support INT category, being a secondary source of intelligence.

It is considered to be an intelligence source (often being approached as an intelligence process or product) that requires a data collection mechanism, assumed along with high costs of acquisition and maintenance, with specific skills and competences needed to collect, process and capitalize of the specialized personnel, especially in the case of geo-intelligence analysts.

There are certain stereotypes related to GEOINT, especially related to the product that is generated, the map, because most of us have an immutable and fixed representation of a map hanging on the wall in front of our eyes.

In reality, the new intelligence paradigm^[19], GEOINT provides dynamic and interactive electronic maps, that represent support for the real time decision making; and some authors see GEOINT as a “foundation for all the other intelligence disciplines”^[20].

We planned to analyze the changes that GEOINT can generate to the intelligence agencies from the perspective of the critical factors (“the 3P’s model”): Process, Product and Personnel

“…] Three factors become critical in the continuous reform and modernization process of the intelligence analysis in the framework of the intelligence communities and agencies.

The three factors derive from the three very important categories/areas in defining a reform process of the national security intelligence analysis, namely:

• Process (the analysis activity, with his entire set of methods or means, internal procedures and standards, but also, with its various types of organization);
• Product (the results of the analysis activity, the products which are sent to beneficiaries/users and the feedback or the requests for information from the intelligence consumers);
• Personnel (the intelligence analyst, as well as the process of its selection and training).”^[21]

By entering in the era of asymmetrical threats in the national security field and by using the technology’s opportunities determined by the transition from the informational era to the knowledge era, the processes, the products and the personnel of the intelligence agencies comply to the changes and transitions, and that must be acknowledged and managed through management and leadership.

In this general context, GEOINT can revolutionize the field of every INT:

     √ as a process, GEOINT can become an accelerating factor in the fusion of INTs, but also to the institutional intelligence macro-processes.^[22]

Through dynamic maps, genuine decision-making support for all three levels (operational, tactic and strategic), the GIS technologies can integrate any type of information collected from human or open resources with any other data from technical sources.

If we imagine classical INTs as some vertical stovepipes^[23], GEOINT would represent that horizontal level, that allows us to develop collaborative platforms for integration and analysis on collection fluxes (every information that is collected having geospatial attributes and components), processing fluxes (analysis can be made on the support of interactive GIS solutions) and dissemination fluxes (as an example, as basic but suggestive maps, or as dynamic maps that are updateable and accessible online to the developers, as well to the intelligence consumers).

“The GEOINT field is a complementary one, but also a classical intelligence fields integrator – HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT”^[24]

     √ also as a process, GEOINT, allows the transition from closed architectures to the open network type architectures. From COPY to ACCESS!

     The main principle behind building the architecture of an IT system is to facilitate the fusion of multi-INT. In the geospatial world, respectively at the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), over 250 companies, governmental agencies and universities from around the world take part in a mutual process of planning and developing geoprocessing.

The Consortium is focusing on promoting open standards for communication and processing of geospatial data and information, which is why they promote the Open Geospatial standards^[25] in the business world. Included in the OGC Reference Model, the standard proposes a minimal frame for building geospatial processing in the case of distributed systems, in an incremental and interoperable manner. The OGC Reference Model represents a knowledge resource for the building open institutional architectures that deal with spatial data and services^[26];

√ as an analysis product, GEOINT reflects a change of paradigm: from map as a product, to map as a service for the other INTs.

     Most often, final intelligence products mean documents (accompanied or not by relational or geographic maps or other geographic elements), verbal presentations (mostly in the anglo-saxon area, where briefing seems to be the main rule when we are speaking about the relation between the developers and consumers of intelligence) or a mix of the two (verbal presentations that come along with support paper documents or IT support). But, not rarely, from the point of finishing the products until the point of presenting it to the beneficiary, the security situation can suffer rapid changes.

To what degree can the intelligence beneficiaries be kept connected in real time to the evolutions that they are interested in? How can they make real time decisions in a deterrent manner, take account of the very rapid and dynamic evolution of the context of security?

One solution (that can be widely used) is the geospatial analysis, that implies the integration of dynamic maps of operational/security context evolutions. Such analysis processes and products require the usage of algorithms that allow us to visualize risk dashboards using geographic coordinates (GIS). These require facile and intuitive means of visualization (even for people that aren’t familiar with the GIS technologies) and direct and rapid interactions with the personnel that is dispatched in the field. As an example, in the operations theatres, the real time collection and information analysis (with the help of UAVs, drones and satellites) can prove to be vital in the accomplishment of basic intelligence missions (prevention and countering the security risks).

Moreover, in a world of intelligence dominated by the diversification of INTs, GEOINT can represent, itself, an integration platform – based on operative and collaborative principles – of the HUMINT, OSINT, SIGINT etc. intell.

GEOINT can represent the best common denominator of INTs, the place where all the other sources/categories of intell can cross paths. Such an evolution is also facilitated by the fact that in the geospatial world, the most used word is standardization, which allows the interoperability of various systems/apps/softwares that facilitates the collection and integration of information. In the GEOINT world, people talk about geo-fusion of information – a process that facilitates the automation of processing (as a preliminary stage of the intelligence analysis) – as a part of an intelligence cycle, in which the final outcome consists in a permanently updated map, that facilitates real time geo-decision.

“As an informative product, GEOINT provides knowledge, cvadri-dimensional visualization (the tridimensional space + the time) and an extreme precision and accuracy, that cannot be realized through other means. GEOINT provides the means through which analysts, tacticians and the militants can orient and visualize the surrounding environment. By building this time and space referencing common frame,

GEOINT is a fundament for the information analysis from any kind of source and ensures ways of integrated operational representation”^[27];

√ regarding personnel (in the case of analysts), even if this represents an activity in Romania (since it was added to the Occupational Classification), an analyst will have to trained to be able to understand and use specific GEOINT technologies.

     Most of the competences that must be developed (as they are defined in occupational standard for the information analyst) are perfectly applicable to the GEOINT analyst. In addition, the GEOINT analyst must have geospatial analysis capabilities (knowledge and aptitudes), he must be able to operate with spatial algorithms, but also to be trained to make decisions, as an example in the operational units (or crisis management centers) based on geo-intelligence.^[28]

     What does it take to operationalize GEOINT?

     √ Workflows inside GEOINT

The main questions that a GEOINT operationalization process must answer are:

• How can I exchange geospatial intell with other users and/or with other agencies?
• How can I configure an informational flow so multiple users can collaborate in an orchestrated manner?
• How can I ensure the accuracy and the consistency of the geospatial information without generating data reprocessing activities?
• How can I manage the growth of GEOINT volume and diversity requests without additional resources?
• How can I generate multiple products based on the same geospatial data?
• How can I integrate geospatial data from different environments and formats and without requesting help from other fields experts (as an example: IT)?

Fig. nr. 13

Geospatial data fusion requires the capability to access raster data (images, video) and vector data, to process data from different sources: directly from sensors, from other agencies, open source data etc.; to interpret geographical positioning (coordinate systems, representation scales); to interpret the temporality of data and to process large volumes of data (any and any much of the pre-mentioned simultaneously).

Geospatial information itemization requires multi-criteria sorting of all data sets using criteria like: confidentiality level, geospatial positioning/coverage and mathematic modeling based on specific algorithms.

Geospatial information extraction requires the identification of information out of the given data sets. Extraction can be split in two categories:

• automatic extraction based on rules: doesn’t require a human operator intervention, the processing is made automatically by instruments based on predefined rules;
• interactive extraction: is the kind of extraction made by human operators and may or may not come after an automated extraction.

The Management of geospatial information requires the maintenance of a data model (or multiple interconnected data models); of the geospatial information visualization rules; of the integration criteria for information coming from different sources and the rules of intell access.

After all the pre-mentioned stages are completed, the following step is to analyze and present intell.

Each of these steps represents a different world with its own rules, technologies and experiences. Taking account the variety of technology and nowadays information sources, for those preoccupied by GEOINT it is vital to:

• understand each world’s rules, without trying to replicate all of them inside the organization;
• concentrate on the desired outcome (actionable intelligence) also during the process of getting to that result.

 

This new resource’s implications over the intelligence analysis

According to some authors^[29], up to 24 days are needed to analytically process the data gathered by drones in a given geographic area and in a single day.

So, the first implication over the analysis is given by the large volume of collected data. Taking this much time to process means that it is inefficient, because it doesn’t allow the real time decision making. As an example, in the field operations the decisions have to be calculated in minutes and seconds.

Another implication is the technological one. When we are talking about such databases collected through GEOINT capabilities, we have to build a “funnel” that can allow us to extract only the essential out of so much data; we need metadata that allows to retrieve and later redefine information. We also need analytic algorithms that semi-automatizes the analysis process.

Because we are using images (often unclear, faded, or without operative significance), distances (geographically measurable) and sophisticated technologies to collect them, the GEOINT analysis requires specific technological abilities of the analysts specialized in this niche.

We had the opportunity to see IT software (specific to GEOINT) that can make the difference (by overlaying images or successive video footages collected by an UAV) between an object that looks foggy and one that was specially smoked one (to block the UAV from taking photos). This way, an analyst can conclude that in that place something is being set up, as an example, an attempt of some armed terrorists to get out of their hideout.

“Geospatial intelligence analysts must have certain abilities of watching an area from up above and to imagine/construct certain perspectives while viewing UAV images.”^[30]

GEOINT analysts must master the technology that they are using to collect information and to constantly update their knowledge on the technology that is being developed. They must be trained to know how to use the entire analytic instrumentation, and the geospatial technology.

“What matters most is the collection of data and putting it together in order to obtain relevant intell. The database is very important, because you want to have intell and people that know how to extract it. It is very important that when you observe, as an example, two tanks on a highway, to extract some «news» out of this image: like where they are going, when, where are they coming from, what is the purpose of their movement etc.”^[31]

This is the reason why GEOINT analysts must be trained in specialized training programs. Since some corporations, like Intergraph in USA is giving away technology and know-how for free to the research and the academic domains, here in Romania similar labs were established (the latest being the ISOP’s geospatial labs³⁵) that facilitate the training of future analysts with the GIS technologies.

 

GEOINT on the behalf of the entire nation

     Once developed, the GEOINT capabilities can have multiple civil applications, fast prevention and intervention in case of some threats/disasters. Referring to the project that we described in the debut of this essay^[32]

“[…] one of this project’s goals was to demonstrate the functionality of the pilot-center’s model. Under operational conditions, by doing three representative study cases: change detection, urban 3D cartography and mission preparation/simulation. It was the perfect opportunity to capitalize the center’s experience in the previous year’s floods.

Based on geospatial intelligence you can highlight, as an example, suitable areas for landing, access and evacuation ways to save human lives and belongings.

Meanwhile, you can develop possible scenarios of the most sensitive spots in a dam and the effects of their breaks, including the breaks caused by the large water volume and the controlled breaks.”^[33]

Therefore, the necessity of GEOINT and geospatial solutions transcends the intelligence domain and can have multiple usage in the critical infrastructure’s domain, disaster prevention domain, and lifesaving interventions in case of disasters. GEOINT can have implications in the resilience implementation plan in Romania, offering real time updated solutions (since the second next to a disaster).

As an example, since November 2012, in Romania, SIAFIM’s externally funded (European funds) research project is undergoing, within the Research, Development and Innovation Programme STAR³⁸, through the involvement of the Romanian Spatial Agency (leader of the programme), ICS^[34] (project coordinator), INCDO-INOE 2000^[35] and ICIA^[36], and the University of Bucharest as a partner (CCMESI^[37]), with the purpose to monitor forest fires using satellite imagery analysis and by developing a global system of forest fire spreading prediction.

Therefore, GEOINT analysis can be the solution for collecting information from extremely hostile and closed environments, real time decision making (in operation theatres, in operational management centers), for integrating the other INTs inside interactive and dynamic products and processes, and also the opportunity of civilian development in the critical infrastructure and resilience domains.

 

[1] Signals Intelligence, collecting intelligence based on intercepting and analyzing electronic communications and other emission, that require technical resources.

[2] Imagery Intelligence, collecting intelligence based on photography and sattelite and airplane images, usage of infrared sensors, lasers, optical electronic devices etc.

[3] Geospatial Intelligence (used acronyms: GEOINT, GeoIntel or GIS).

[4] Open Source Intelligence, collecting intelligence from open sources, public sources, unregulated access sources, official and formal sources.

[5] Human Intelligence, collecting intelligence by using secret human sources.

[6] Răducanu, Dan (2006), Operation Iraqi Freedom. Romania provides GEOINT data in real time, in “Curierul Armatei”(“Army’s Courier”) nr. 4 (192) from 28 february 2006.

[7] The Military Technical Academy, Military Equipment and Technologies Research Agency from the National Defense Ministry.

[8] Institute of Advanced Technology from the Romanian Intelligence Service.

[9] http://jurnalul.ro/special–jurnalul/ochiul–romanesc–din–cer–509961.html  ¹⁰ Radar Intelligence, collecting intelligence using radars.

[10] Measurement and Signals Intelligence, collecting intelligence using data from specific technical sensors (electromagnetic frequencies, radio etc.), in order to identify reflected or issued characteristics related to the transmitter or the dispatcher.

[11] National Security Agency.

[12] National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

[13] The Government Communications Headquarters.

[14] Defense Geographic Centre.

[15] Canadian Forces Joint Imagery Centre.

[16] ESA – European Space Agency and EUSC – European Union Satellite Centre.

[17] https://www1.nga.mil/Pages/default.aspx  ¹⁹ Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.

[18] Grădinaru, Cătălin (2010), GEOINT – a capability specific to the 21^st century, in Infosfera nr.2/2010, DGIA, Bucharest, page 70.

[19] About the intelligence change of paradigm, please read Niţu, Ionel (2012), Intelligence analysis. An approach from the perspective of change theories (Analiza de intelligence. O abordare din perspectiva teoriilor schimbării), RAO Publishing, Bucharesti, page 209-225.

[20] Mallory Broussard (2012), GEOINT 2012: The Foundation for All Intelligence Disciplines, available online at http://www.intergraphblogs.com/connect/2012/10/geoint–2012–the–foundation–for–all–intelligence–disciplines/  

[21] Nițu, Ionel (2011), Intelligence AnalystGuide. A Digest for Junior Intelligence Analysts, National Intelligence Academy ”Mihai Viteazul” Publishing, Bucharest, 2011, page 56.

[22] Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, interview available online at http://www.geospatialintelligence–forum.com/mgt–home/30–mgt–2008–volume–6–issue–2/195–intelligence–agent.html  

[23] “Stovepipes”, treated in the specific literature as pipes/circuits, representing ways through which information fllows, is accessible, is verified, is being completed and integrated as an intelligence product (according to Niţu, Ionel, 2012, Analiza de intelligence. O abordare din perspectiva teoriilor schimbării (Intelligence analysis. An approach from the perspective of change theories), RAO Publishing, Bucureşti, p. 39).

[24] Grădinaru, Cătălin (2010), op.cit., p. 70.

[25] For details on standards (cumulated in the OGC Reference Model) please visit the following web page http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/orm

[26] Kennedy Smith, Ghraham; Bacharach, Sam A. (2004), Multi-IntFusion, in GeoIntelligence Magazine, june 2004.

[27] Grădinaru, Cătălin (2010), op.cit.,p. 71.

[28] Regarding GEOINT’s role, please look at Alniței, Marin (2012), GEOINT (Geospatial Intelligence) în războiul viitorului (in the war of the future), in Infosfera nr. 1/2011, DGIA, Bucharest, pages.35-41.

[29] Kerbel, Josh; Olcott, Anthony (2010), Synthesizing with Clients, Not Analyzing for Costumers (2010), in Studies in Intelligence. Journal of the American Intelligence Professional, Centre for the Study of Intelligence, CIA, Washington DC, volume 54, Number 4 (december 2010), page 5.

[30] http://jurnalul.ro/special–jurnalul/ochiul–romanesc–din–cer–509961.html

[31] Dan Răducanu, from the Military Technical Academy, in http://jurnalul.ro/special–jurnalul/ochiul–romanesc–din–cer–509961.html ³⁵ Institute for the Study of Internal Order, being part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

[32] Between the Romanian Space Agency, MApN and SRI.

[33] http://jurnalul.ro/special–jurnalul/ochiul–romanesc–din–cer–509961.html ³⁸ Space Technology and Advanced Research.

[34] Intergraph Computer Services.

[35] National Institute for Research and Development in Optoelectronics

[36] Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence “Mihai Drăgănescu” part of the Romanian Academy.

[37] Centre for Environmental Research and Impact Studies